Thursday, June 23, 2011
Chance Didnt Create The Current Economic Crisis
What the world is experiencing today did not happen by chance, it was planned that way.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Worldometers
Money spent due to obesity related diseases in the USA today (US$):
Friday, June 17, 2011
Bitcoin in the News
The Bottom Line: Bitcoins digital currency unstable, still a high-risk venture
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Inspirational Money and Business Quote
- Evangeline Caridas
Warren Buffet once said: "It's only when the tide goes out, you find out who's been swimming naked." Once your business gets public attention, everything you've done wrong will be scrutinized for all to see.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Global Aging
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Principles of economics, translated
There’s safety in small numbers
Running late for a flight, on a twisting Sicilian road, I overtook a large lorry while my view was obscured by another large lorry. All was well, but several weeks later I am still having flashbacks. I’d taken a bet against what my colleague John Kay calls the “Taleb distribution”, named after Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan. When you bet against a Taleb distribution, you enjoy lots of small gains (I made my flight) but you also risk disaster.
On the roads, the risks are obvious enough, but in many contexts they will be hidden. When banks and insurance companies sold credit default swaps on subprime loan packages, they were receiving a stream of small payments in exchange for a risk of catastrophic loss. But the risk seemed very small: as Joseph J. Cassano of AIG commented as the credit crunch was beginning: “It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of those transactions.” He was wrong by 11 or 12 orders of magnitude, which may be about as wrong as it’s possible to be in human affairs.
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It will often make sense to bet with the distribution instead of against it, taking repeated small losses on the chin in exchange for the occasional big success. In derivatives markets, this is the trading strategy that Taleb himself advocated. It is the strategy of the successful venture capital fund, too.
It’s also the approach advocated by Peter Sims – a former venture capitalist – in an enjoyable new book, Little Bets. In one of many examples, Sims describes the American comedian Chris Rock’s agonising practice sessions in low-key comedy venues, scratching around for new material, and argues that it’s worth tolerating a lot of disappointments in order to make it big.
I agree with Sims, but here is the difficulty: these small failures hurt. That is the evidence from psychological research; it’s also what common sense tells us. And they are embarrassing, because while the “little bets” that Sims describes are good bets, until they pay off they may seem to other people to be as fantastical as wasting money on scratchcards.
In contrast, the world often admires those who bet against the Taleb distribution, who keep risking disaster but usually avoid it. As the small wins stack up – perhaps bloated through leverage – managers and colleagues will tend to see a safe pair of hands, not a dangerous driver.
The challenge, then, is to find institutions that support little bets – or to use Taleb’s term from the second edition of The Black Swan, “antifragile” institutions, which benefit from disruption.
Scientific institutions fit the bill. A single breakthrough, whether theoretical or in the laboratory, can make up for a hundred failed ideas, because the scientific process helps to refute bad ideas and disseminate good ones.
But the most ubiquitous antifragile institutions are markets. When markets work well, they are remarkable systems for sifting out the dross and spreading successful ideas. The printing press and the production line, for instance, only needed to be invented once. These ideas spread through imitation, mergers and the growth of successful companies. And when markets work it is not because of the power of the profit motive, but because this process of trial and error is incredibly powerful.
When faced with a complex problem, we should look for institutions that can quickly discard bad ideas and reward good ones – institutions which place themselves on the right side of the Taleb distribution, able to exploit each rare opportunity as it appears. That need not be a free-market approach, but it must be one which is able to experiment and to adapt.
Tim Harford’s new book, ‘Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure’, is published by Little, Brown
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/bd0280c2-8bee-11e0-854c-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1OI4de4B4
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
10 Best Mafia Lessons For Success In Business
If you're climbing the corporate ladder and eager to succeed, you can glean some valuable lessons from mobsters who are employees of the longest running organization in history: the Mafia.
If we shed our prejudices, we'll find that accomplished mobsters are just like top business leaders.
The Mafia shares the same power structure as any corporation. A don is exactly like a CEO, steering the business (or family) into the future. His capos are middle-managers or department heads, and his soldiers are employees.
Whether corporate or Mafia, people who acquire diplomatic skills, leadership qualities, and the enthusiasm to motivate will master their respective fields.
In my new book, "Mob Rules: What the Mafia Can Teach the Legitimate Businessman," I explain the better attributes of La Cosa Nostra so that Our Thing can become Your Thing.
1. Lesson 6 - Don't End Up in the Trunk of a Car: Avoid Office Politics.
When John Gotti took over the Gambino family, mobster Louie Milito had issues with his appointment decisions. Milito felt he was being pushed aside as promotions went to less experienced mobsters. Instead of holding his tongue, Milito took part in office politics, expressing his dissatisfaction. Gotti's new regime called for his immediate dismissal and Milito's whispering was stopped by the whisper of a bullet passing through a silencer. Would Milito have taken a shot had he directed his original dismay to Gotti himself? We will never know.
Avoid office politics. If you have something to say, go through the appropriate channels and express your concerns constructively, to the right people. Your corporate survival is at stake.
2. Lesson 12 - Roll Up Your Sleeves but Keep Your Pants On
Lucchese underboss Anthony "Gaspipe" Casso admitted to killing Anthony Fava, the architect he hired to redesign his home. Casso claimed that Fava, having accepted cash payments, might have been an informer but denied reports that Fava had made a pass at his wife. Oddly though, when Fava's body was found, his genitals had been burned with a blow torch. Everyone in the Mafia knew that Fava had broken the cardinal rule: never hit on the wife of a colleague.
Even if you haven't spotted a blow torch in boss's top drawer, stay away from the his or her goods and the goods of your coworkers. It's the surest way to make enemies and ruin your career before it starts.
Monday, June 6, 2011
The Key To a Successful Life?
Watch the full episode. See more PBS NewsHour.
Obesity good for the economy?
Why America Has to Be Fat
A Side Effect of Economic Expansion Shows Up in Front
Sunday, June 5, 2011
Angry Birds App Earns Over a Million a Month
Feb 16th, 2011: Peter Vesterbacka is the man behind Angry Birds. Produced by gamemaker Rovio, it has been the number one app in the UK (on Android and iPhone) for the past year and leads the charts in 70 other countries. To date, the Angry Birds has been downloaded over 75 million times worldwide. At the Mobile World Congress he talks to Mary Watkins, technology correspondent, about the gravitational shift to mobile technology and the formula for making a winning app.